Aug 18,2022

Zhitong Finance APP learned that Oriental Securities released a research report that benefiting from distributed photovoltaic & energy storage penetration of dual-wheel drive, overseas home energy storage is growing rapidly. The bank expects that, assuming 15% energy storage penetration in the newly installed PV market and 2% energy storage penetration in the stock market in 2025, the global household energy storage capacity space reaches 25.45GW/58.26GWh, and the compound growth rate of installed energy in 2021-2025 is 58%. Home energy storage market space is vast, and the products of Chinese enterprises have high cost performance and are widely popular in the global market. It is recommended to pay attention to Penghui Energy (300438.sz), Power Technology (688063.sh), Bolivay (688345.sh), DYE Stock (605117.SH), Sunshine Power (300274.sh).

What are the trends in home energy storage systems?

Home energy storage systems can usually be combined with distributed photovoltaic generation to form a home light storage system. The home storage system mainly includes batteries and inverters. (1) From the perspective of battery trend, energy storage battery evolves to higher capacity. With the increase of residential electricity consumption, the amount of electricity brought by each household gradually increases. The battery can be expanded by modularization, and the high-voltage battery has become a trend. (2) In terms of inverter trends, there is an increasing demand for hybrid inverters suitable for the incremental market and off-grid inverters that do not need to be connected to the grid. (3) From the point of view of the trend of terminal products, at present, it is mainly split-type, that is, the battery and inverter system are used together, and then it will gradually develop into an all-in-one machine. (4) From the perspective of regional market trends, the differences in power grid structure and power market lead to slight differences in mainstream products in different regions. Europe is dominated by grid-connected mode, the United States is more off-grid mode, and Australia is exploring virtual power plant mode.

Why the Overseas Home Energy Storage Market continues to Grow?

Benefiting from distributed PV & energy storage penetration dual-wheel drive, overseas home energy storage is growing rapidly. In terms of photovoltaic installation, Europe has a high dependence on external energy, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has aggravated the energy crisis, so European countries have raised their expectations of photovoltaic installation. In terms of energy storage penetration, the increase in energy price leads to the increase of residential electricity price and the improvement of energy storage economy. Various countries have issued subsidy policies to encourage the installation of energy storage for household use.

How is the overseas market developing and how big is the market space?

The United States, Europe and Australia are the main markets for household energy storage. According to BNEF statistics, the newly installed household energy storage capacity of the United States in 2020 was 154MW/431MWh, mainly driven by subsidy policies; Europe has newly installed household energy storage capacity of 639MW/1179MWh, household electricity price has risen rapidly, and household storage economy has improved. The newly installed capacity of household energy storage in Australia is 48MW/134MWh, and the high penetration rate of household photovoltaic has the foundation for the development of household energy storage. The virtual power plant market integrates household energy storage to participate in auxiliary services to improve the yield. The bank expects that, assuming 15% energy storage penetration in the newly installed PV market and 2% energy storage penetration in the stock market in 2025, the global household energy storage capacity space reaches 25.45GW/58.26GWh, and the compound growth rate of installed energy in 2021-2025 is 58%.

What are the key barriers to the home energy storage industry?

The bank believes the key barriers to home energy storage are channel and product power. The home energy storage system is usually used together with rooftop photovoltaic, and the product form is similar to small household appliances and has certain consumer goods attributes. From the perspective of 2C products, (1) the channel affects the product's reach and market coverage. Manufacturers can establish overseas channels or deeply bind with channels to achieve sales goals; (2) The product's market positioning is determined by the technical parameters such as charge, voltage level and coupling mode, and R&D investment and service system construction are the key to guarantee the product strength.

Which links will benefit?

Battery and PCS are two major components of home energy storage system, which are the most beneficial links in the home energy storage market. According to the bank's calculation, in 2025, the newly installed capacity of household energy storage is 25.45GW/58.26GWh, corresponding to 58.26GWh of battery shipment and 25.45GW of PCS shipment. The bank expects that by 2025, the battery incremental market space is 78.4 billion yuan, and the PCS incremental market space is 20.9 billion yuan. Therefore, enterprises with a high proportion of energy storage business, large market share, wide channel layout and strong brand power in the industry will benefit.

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